Mini Minds Hub · Free printable
The Probability Scale: Free Printable Worksheet for Year 6
- ForYear 6
- StageKey Stage 2
- CostFree
- FormatPrintable PDF
The Probability Scale is a free printable maths worksheet for Year 6 (ages 10 to 11), in Key Stage 2. Children choose the best word for each event, using words from impossible to certain. It takes about 15 minutes, needs only a pencil, and page 2 gives the grown-up notes, help ideas, a stretch idea and the answers.
It comes from the Mini Minds Hub, the free library of printables from Jaques of London, the British games and toy company that has been making games for families since 1795. Print both pages, give page 1 to your child and keep page 2 for yourself. Black and white printing works well.
What is on the sheet
Children read a list of events and decide how likely each one is. Some are about dice and coins. One is about the sun, one is about a pig that walks in and speaks, and some are about picking socks from a drawer. For each event, children choose the best probability word and write it in the space.
- A normal dice shows a 7.
- A normal dice shows a number less than 7.
- A coin lands on heads.
- The sun will rise tomorrow.
- A pig will walk into the room and speak.
- You pick a red sock from a drawer with 9 red and 1 blue sock.
- You pick a blue sock from a drawer with 9 red and 1 blue sock.
- A normal dice shows an even number.
A worked example
You pick a green counter from a bag with 2 green and 6 yellow counters. How likely is it?
This is a different event from the ones on the sheet. It shows two ways to think about a choice.
Method 1: compare the groups- Count each colour. There are 2 green and 6 yellow.
- Ask if green could happen. Yes, there are some green counters, so it is not impossible.
- Compare the groups. There are far fewer green than yellow, so green is not likely.
- Find the total number of counters. 2 + 6 = 8.
- Write the green counters as a fraction of the total: 2 out of 8.
- 2 out of 8 is the same as 1 out of 4. That is less than half, so green is unlikely.
How to choose the best word
Start at the ends
Ask two questions first. Can this never happen? Must this always happen? These two answers sit at the ends of the scale.
Look at the whole set
For picking things from a container, count every item, not only the one you want. The size of the group matters.
Compare with half
Ask if the event is more than half of the possible outcomes, less than half, or exactly half. This helps to choose between the middle words.
Say why
Finish each choice with the word because. A reason shows the thinking and helps children spot their own slips.
Why talk about chance with words first?
Probability describes how likely something is to happen. People use it every day without noticing, when they decide whether to take a coat, or guess who will win a game. Before children use numbers, they need a clear feel for the language. Words such as impossible, unlikely, likely and certain help them sort events and give reasons.
A probability scale is a line that runs from events that can never happen to events that must happen. Everything else sits between the two ends. Placing events on the line teaches children to compare, not just to name. It also prepares them for later work, where the same line is marked with numbers.
Quick facts about chance
- Probability is a way of measuring how likely something is.
- Weather forecasts often give the chance of rain as a percentage.
- In a fair game of chance, you cannot be sure what will happen on one go.
- Mathematicians can write probability as a fraction, a decimal or a percentage.
- When there are more of one kind in a bag, picking that kind is more likely.
Skills and curriculum link
- Probability words
- Reasoning
- Comparing
- Ordering on a scale
- Explaining thinking
What children will be able to do
- I can use words from impossible to certain.
- I can place events on a scale.
- I can explain why an event is likely or unlikely.
Ideas to help you support your child
- Ends of the lineHelp your child think about the two ends of the scale first. One end is for events that can never happen. The other is for events that must happen.
- Count the wholeFor a drawer or a bag, ask your child to count everything inside before they decide. The total changes how likely each colour is.
- Ask for a reasonAsk, "What makes you say that?" A good reason is more useful than a quick answer, and it shows how your child is thinking.
- Link to real lifeTalk about chance in daily life, such as weather, games or who will be first home. Use the probability words as you chat.
Key words
- ProbabilityHow likely it is that something will happen.
- ImpossibleIt can never happen.
- UnlikelyIt could happen, but it probably will not.
- Even chanceIt is as likely to happen as not to happen.
- LikelyIt will probably happen, but it might not.
- CertainIt will definitely happen.
How to use it
- Print both pages. Page 1 is for your child. Keep page 2, which has the notes and answers.
- Read the first event aloud together. Ask your child to say how likely it is before they write a word.
- Let your child work alone, then talk through each answer. It should take about 15 minutes.
- Check against page 2. Ask, "Why did you choose that word?" Listen for the reasoning as well as the answer.
- Come back another day and look again at any events that felt tricky. Repeating a familiar sheet builds confidence.
Help, stretch and game ideas
If it feels too hard
Draw a line on scrap paper with impossible at one end and certain at the other. Write each event on a small slip of paper and place it on the line. Move the slips about until your child is happy, then choose the word.
To stretch confident children
Make up two events of your own for each probability word. Swap them with a friend or grown up and see if they agree with your choices. If they do not, talk about why and decide together.
Make it a game
Draw a probability line on paper. One player reads out an event, either from the sheet or made up. The other places a counter on the line and gives a reason. If the reason is good, they score a point.
Mistakes to watch for
Watch forA child thinks unlikely means the same as impossible.
Try thisAsk, "Could it ever happen?" If it could, even rarely, it is not impossible. Place it near the impossible end but not on it.
Watch forA child only looks at the number of one colour and ignores the rest.
Try thisAsk them to count the whole group, then compare. Drawing the items as small circles makes the comparison easier to see.
Watch forA child says an outcome is due because it has not happened for a while.
Try thisRemind them that each go is separate. Past goes do not change what will happen next time.
Talk about it
- Where would you put this event on the scale, and why?
- Why is that one impossible?
- Can you think of something that is certain?
- What is something that is likely, but not certain?
- How could you make an unlikely event more likely?
- Did anyone choose a different word from you? Who has the better reason?
Take it off the page
Weather watch
Each morning, predict whether it will rain using a probability word. In the evening, check and talk about how your prediction went.
Bag of colours
Put different numbers of two colours of socks or paper shapes into a bag. Without looking, pick one and say how likely each colour was before you pick.
Probability washing line
Peg event cards along a string, from impossible to certain. Make new cards at home, such as things that happen at bedtime or at school.
Who it is for
Parents
Sit with your child for the first event, then let them lead. About 15 minutes is plenty. If they are unsure, ask them to draw the line from impossible to certain and place the event on it.
Teachers
Use it as a starter or plenary on chance language, an early finisher task or a homework sheet. It needs no preparation beyond printing. Page 2 gives support, stretch and answers, so it suits mixed ability groups.
Home educators
Use it as part of a wider maths plan, or alongside everyday talk about chance in games and weather. It is free to print again for brothers, sisters or revision a few weeks later.
Where this fits
Before this sheet, children use everyday words for chance and compare amounts and fractions of a set. Being able to say what fraction of a group is one colour helps with the sock events, because it links to the whole.
After this, children can move on to giving probability as a fraction, then as a number. In Key Stage 3 they meet the scale from 0 to 1 and compare probabilities more precisely. The words practised here are the starting point.
Check it worked
Ask these when the sheet is finished. Listen for the reasoning, not just the answer.
- Where would you put this event on the scale?
- Why is that one impossible?
- Can you think of something that is certain?
Questions parents and teachers ask
- What age is The Probability Scale for?
It is written for Year 6 (ages 10 to 11), in Key Stage 2. Younger children can try it with help, and older children can use it as quick revision of probability words.
- What will children practise?
They describe how likely events are, using words from impossible to certain. They also compare events, give reasons for their choices and place events on a scale.
- How long does it take?
It takes about 15 minutes. That includes talking through each answer with a grown up. For a shorter go, do half the events and come back to the rest later.
- What if it feels too hard?
Draw a line from impossible to certain and place each event on it. Moving written slips along the line makes the choices easier to see and to change.
- Is it free to print?
Yes. It is free to print for home and classroom use. You can print it again for brothers, sisters or revision, and black and white printing works well.
- Can teachers use it in class?
Yes. Teachers can use it as a starter, plenary, early finisher task, homework or table activity. It needs no preparation beyond printing, and page 2 has support and stretch ideas.
- Is it a screen free activity?
Yes. It needs only paper and a pencil, so it works well for quiet time, rainy days and school holidays. It also gets children talking and explaining their thinking.
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Made by Jaques of London, making games for families since 1795. A printable supports classroom learning and does not replace a teacher.